“What happened to our maritime case at the ICJ? Our people have the right to know why and how the case was postponed. Or is this the beginning of the road to outside court settlement? Our government has to come forward and give proper answers to the Somali citizens” said ex-President Hassan Sheikh.
Geopolitics, just like tectonic plates sometimes don’t fit in and often are time-based shifts, thus, a strategic or tactical blunder during the events can cause catastrophic ramifications, some irreversible. The Maritime row between Somalia and Kenya reached a crescendo, perhaps by default, and that should have been a turning point to herald FGS the armistice path.
“Tell us what has happened to the case! You’ve auctioned our country behind our backs!” Angry rant by his people in the socio-sphere.
Somalia’s President Mohamed Farmaajo has found himself stuck, and worse, short of options to push forward socio-politically. With his term ending mid-2020 and a re-election seemingly dimmer than before, the President has reached the geopolitical cul-de-sac, a plateau where allies desert citing strategic objectives.
The President and his government, the FGS, were politically exploiting the case to build nationalism to rally citizens behind their political outfit and subsequently win the 2020 elections. FGS maintained the excuse, that agreeing to an out of court settlement would cause a sociopolitical problem at home that would culminate to eventual destabilization of the restive Horn Nation. Now that punch line is gone.
The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) strategically weaponized the case. The case has all through been used as a warhead thus made to look like a war with the Republic of Kenya, the powerful East African economy and military. This worked well, making Kenya look like an aggressive and ill meaning neighbor. War is a catalyst to build massive political patronage and patriotism, this too was a temporally strategy, and worse, poorly thought. It’s now gone awry .
ICJ Case Postponement
Unexpectedly, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) granted the Republic of Kenya a final but substantial extension of time to prepare for the case. June 2020, the weather will be bad, cold and rainy, and partly windy. There’s always a food and flooding crisis in Somalia then, bad sociopolitical weather it’ll be. Interestingly, it’ll be the political season, and President Farmaajo will be having his last glances at Villa Somalia and the trappings of power it granted him, a milestone for him as a career politician, now a Somali Citizen. Farmaajo and his chest thumping political and diplomacy advisors did not anticipate such a drastic decline of their pedestals strategic balance. Buoyed by foreign support from Qatar, Turkey, Britain, and some advisors from the United States, Farmaajo has enjoyed a constant winning streak, and this made him bolder and proud. These foreign supporters will start scouting for a new wheeler-dealer since Farmaajo’s role and strategic value is fast waning as his chances of re-election have fell flat.
Infallible Foreign Advisors & Think Tanks
Back home, the political weather is constantly worsening. The opposition is getting stronger, the terrorists are making incredible strategic gains against the Somali Army during a time when corruption is thriving and socioeconomic outlook is bleak. Having started a Geopolitical cold-war in East and Horn of Africa Farmaajo is not viewed as a man who needs help to rebuild and secure Somalia, rather as unscrupulous and untrustworthy leader whose penchant for Ottoman Empire ideologies and the Sultanate Qatari wealth is insatiable, thus a poor Pan-African. Perhaps the foreign advisors, particularly the oil and gas executives who hired think tanks for him convinced him he’d weather the storms and emerge victorious.
Think Tanks aren’t intelligence organizations, rather forecasters, the former deals with actual intelligence thus can forecast and exploit data thus making a think tank inferior when pursuing geopolitics. Farmaajo’s advisors forgot a vital geopolitical fact “The world seems to have largely accepted the reality of Kenya’s rising power an acceptance that is key to the formation of a compact between them. For decades, the world powers acted virtually in lockstep with Kenya on many major regional economic and security issues. A closer look at recent events, suggests the international community, ‘pragmatically‘, doesn’t want Kenya’s unrivaled influence to wane.”
ICJ President Judge Yusuf Term Ends in 2020
Farmaajo has been bullish about the case besides expressed his incredible confidence in the court, maybe because the court has successively dismissed 3 applications by Nairobi or the outcome then would have provided FGS with sociopolitical equilibrium, thus avoid backlash that’d politically weaken it. Perhaps flashing light on the February 2017 declaration by the court provided more insight about the basis of this posturing. Judge Ahmed Yusuf was Vice President of the court then and has been the constant glimmer of hope in the case, with him as President of the Court. A Puntland Marehan, the Farmaajo’s clan, Abdulqawi Ahmed Yusuf according to intelligence sources in Washington and Puntland, has Presidential ambitions and the case presents him a wonderful opportunity to turn political tides to his favor. Unfortunately, this won’t be the case, he retires in 2020, having served the non-renewable 3 years term, thus will have no strategic influence at the court as Farmaajo and his team thought.
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Having wasted all his chances, Farmaajo will have no choice but to retreat. His money, wasted on Think Tanks, duped by the double dealing Oil & Gas executives, and now less loved by regional heads of States and their foreign ministers, the Somali President will have to look through his geopolitical strategy oversight.