An intelligence report issued on the 1st day of the 1st week of July 2019, warns that Hassan Khaire has bought 4000 strong Ahlu-Suna Wa Jamaa (ASWJ) militia, a group that fights Al-Shabaab terror group in Central Somalia. The group for over a decade has been funded and armed by the Ethiopian government. It is based in Galmudug prefecture in Middle Somalia. Khaire used kickbacks he received from British and Norwegian oil companies he awarded exploration licenses for oil and gas blocks. These blocks are on a neighboring country, which is also a regional power, continental shelf.
According to the report, Khaire is not only buying warlords but also the country military commanders, mostly those from the Hawiye clan. The objective, according to Somali Intelligence (NISA), is to remove president Farmaajo, a Marehan tribesman, from power and the front run, through a silent coup ahead of 2020 elections. By buying Somali National Army (SNA) commanders, Khaire plans to challenge the President, probably usurp his authority and become de facto leader of Somalia, or using parliament after recess, and if that does not work, militarily, after assembling enough loyalists within SNA top brass and Hawiye clan troops.
Khaire is traveling to Canada and the United States in coming days to seek more buyers for other exploration blocks offshore and onshore Somalia. The licenses will be awarded companies that have strategic partnership with the British and Norwegian oil firms he awarded the exploration rights in Kenyan continental shelf. Soma Oil, one of the contentious companies has been facilitating travel and hotel stay for the Minister of Somalia’s Ministry of Petroleum and Mining and the directors at the ministry, besides paying them the equivalent of their salaries and pa Diem in cash abroad. The executives of these oil firms will lobby debt cancellation and more aid to Somalia besides, pay him millions of dollars to oil his Presidential campaign.
A Senior Somalia National Intelligence Agency (NISA) official confirmed that Hassan Khaire is also being funded by sections of Qatari administration, an isolated gulf state. Khaire is working with his close ally, Fahad Yassin who serves as Deputy Director of the Somali Intelligence service. Others involved in the silent coup plot are Hassan Mohamed Jamaal the Minister of Planning and Economic Development, and Mr Abdi Said Muse, the National Security Advisor who Khaire has promised to make Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. Muse is poised to replace H.E Ahmed Isse Awadh who Khaire has no respect for.
NISA also warns that the European Union provides funding that is then used by Khaire and his associates. Cash from the European Union is supplied on cash basis by Alex Rodos. Alex Rodos personal assistance and mistress in Somalia is Abdi Said Muse sister putting the EU Mission in Somalia to disrepute and on UN watch. Khaire has been shipping his loot to his house in Nairobi. One of his cash stash was intercepted by Kenyan authorities after a tip off from Somalia. Khaire set up the courier, NISA acting Director Dr. Abdullahi Adan Kulane, a Farmaajo loyalist.
Hassan Khaire, Somalia’s Prime Minister continues to fuel a future political and diplomatic crisis in Somalia undeterred. As if that is not enough, he is extending his folly beyond Somali borders, severing diplomatic ties and trying to upstage neighbors for political mileage. In Somalia, Khaire is cutting clan based political deals and promising warlords’ government positions if they support his 2020 presidential bid. Such deals are recipe for disaster for they are often interred by political patrons.
On his part, Somalia’s president Mohamed Farmaajo seems to view these developments as watershed moments. Somalia is making progress, and Mohamed Farmaajo thinks the Somali people will feel indebted to him for this and give him a much need second term and pat on the back. He is on a pedestal, perhaps oblivious of the impeding catastrophic ramifications on country socio-politics, courtesy of his Prime Minister’s naivety. Geopolitical experts at S.I, provides an update on Somalia’s saber rattling Prime Minister, most belligerent political and foreign policy actions, after making several million dollars from oil blocks auctions in a foreign power’s sea water.
President Mohamed Farmaajo is being silently ousted from power by his Prime Minister. A Silent coup doesn’t need be bloody, rather it is about eroding the confidence on the executive and its political leadership, to the eyes of the ruling class, in this case, parliament, besides the private sector kahunas who are also patrons of both the political establishment and the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen.
The ever forlorn looking Farmaajo has feted the arrival of Western diplomats in Somalia as his Prime Minister is enjoying limelight abroad as a powerful leader and politician. Khaire is negotiating for debt cancellation and restoration of diplomatic stations in Mogadishu subsequently building on the publicity these events are attracting to gain political mileage.
What Next? Perhaps a Black Swan Moment…
The National Intelligence Service Agency is divided into factions. The Dr. Adan Kulane faction is loyal to President Farmaajo while the Fahad Yassin wing is loyal to Prime Minister Khaire and closely working with both Al-Shabaab moderates and the Somali Army top leadership from the Hawiye clan . Khaire was born in central Somalia and is a member of the Hawiye tribe, one of Somalia’s five principal clans. He is seeking to establish a clan hegemony in Government, particularly at the army (SNA) and intelligence wing (NISA).
Farmaajo cannot see it, he is blinded by the small successes in diplomatic circles and a false sense of calm around the capital Mogadishu. The few hundred SNA troops training abroad hoping to come back home to fit in AMISOM boots is a reassuring outlook, but we have seen several Danab and SNA bases blitzed completely by terrorists leaving only a handful of men alive and running for dear life. Armed with petro dollars, clan militia, the SNA top brass, and a biased parliament, Hassan Khaire is now the de facto President of Somalia.
Perhaps Farmaajo thinks not, but it is a matter of time, and both parliament and cabinet will stop respecting him and so will the
Somali people. A Largely patriarchal society that loves political hegemony, Farmaajo is losing clout and Khaire is emerging stronger and as the face of government. Regionally, Farmaajo will be alone in coming days.
The Arab nations will be silent since they love dominant players’ not docile and forlorn politicians. Left with a handful of loyalists, and without regional support as intended in the Khaire project, Farmaajo, the front runner in 2020 Presidential elections will be viewed as tactless politician before the year ends, and again, that is what a silent coup is about, destroying political clout from within thus de-popularizing the target. It’ll be a walk in the park for Khaire, finishing President Mohamed Farmaajo’s political career without any form of violence either.
By David Goldman
David Goldman is the Director of Counter Terrorism, National Security, and Intelligence Analysis at Strategic Intelligence. S.I is a team of dedicated professionals working privately to provide actionable intelligence.